So you think you know the real factor controlling Kenyan politics right now? If you do, your prediction of the future will always be spot on

The real factor controlling our politics right now will be a big surprise to most. It has NEVER been mentioned in mainstream media

To accurately read the politics of Kenya and even make spot on predictions on what is going to happen next, it is very important to first identify what or who the latest politics is revolving around. In other words, the main factor behind all the politics.

When you get that one right it is impossible to go wrong. Admittedly it may not always be very easy to identify the factor controlling your politics all the time. Sometimes it is obvious, but in many other instances it becomes very difficult.

Right now with all the political chaos unfolding in Kenya it is extremely difficult to accurately point to that single factor that even speaks to our future as a country. Fortunately this writer seems to have found it and has tested it against dozens of major political events and developments in the country over several months. There is no doubt that this is is it. And it will shock most Kenyans to their bones.

But first let us understand this political factor manenos a little more deeply.

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In 1987 the Weekly Review (the then very popular and authoritative leading political weekly) carried a very detailed controversial piece that suggested a rather surprising factor controlling all the politics at the time. The article suggested that all the politics was revolving around a man called Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki, the then Vice President.

The passage of time ended up proving that article 100 percent accurate. However it received quite a nasty reaction from Mwai Kibaki. He called a press conference and rubbished the article. Bitterly complained and in fact suggested that somebody had been paid to write that "rubbish."

Now it is quite possible that at that time Kibaki was not able to read the vicious politics that was unfolding "below the radar" and therefore he probably assumed the Weekly Review article was pure fiction and yet it was pin point accurate because just a handful of months later in 1988 Kibaki was "OUT". He lost the Vice presidency and had to bear the embarrassment of sitting in a cabinet where somebody else was second in command.

I guess when you have your drink and all your social activities at the Muthaiga Golf Club and do everything in your power to avoid the riff raff (which was Mwai Kibaki's lifestyle) it may be a bit difficult to read chini ya maji politics. What is going on with the riff raff can sometimes be terribly important.

What was going on at that time is that a powerful clique of the Kalenjin community (Rift vally mafia made up of mostly illiterates) behind president Moi felt that Kikuyu Mwai Kibaki was not loyal enough. He was not screaming Moi's praises loud enough for their satisfaction. And therefore they felt he had to go. Be removed from Kenyan politics altogether.

And those readers of the Weekly Review who believed that this article was inaccurate remained in the dark until things finally started coming out clearly for all to see. Because towards the 1988 General Elections all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle suddenly started falling into place in rapid succession.

Now, the 1988 general elections were mlolongo (queue voting) elections. Kenyans were lining up to elect their leaders. The KANU party primaries were queue voting system and something very interesting happened in Othaya during those KANU elections.

In a very dramatic turn of events, The returning officer initially announced that Mwai Kibaki had lost. Which was very interesting because everybody could see that Kibaki's queue was much longer than his opponents'. But then of course the returning officer's word is final. So Mwai Kibaki had lost and was out of elective politics for the first time since independence. Or so it seemed initially.

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But the voters in Othaya could not take it. So they rushed home to fetch their "pangas" and it was clear that bloody violence was going to erupt. Frantic calls were made to Nairobi by the local administrators and before the "armed" voters could reach the centre of the town, the Returning Officer hurried back with different election results. Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner.

And anybody who was still doubting the Weekly Review analysis (which was titled the Kibaki factor) must have been completely convinced when after the elections in 1988 Moi announced his new cabinet where Mwai Kibaki did not retain his position as Vice President. Instead he was the new Health Minister.

Now my point of telling you that very fascinating political story is that this Weekly Review article talked about all the politics at the time revolving around Mwai Kibaki. In other words decisions were being made (in the run-up to the 1988 General elections) all carefully considering the Kibaki factor. Which was that he was being gotten rid of. That meant his allies were also affected and those who were sympathetic to his cause and happened to be in government.

That is why when you understand who the politics is revolving around it becomes very easy to analyze and even predict government decisions long before they are made. You are also able to link political developments that may on surface look unrelated.

Here's another quick example from more recent times.

During President Uhuru Kenyatta's second term, all politics in Kenya revolved around then DP Ruto. The Ruto factor ruled.

Did you know that even the decision to retire the old Kenya Shillings 1000 notes and replace it with the brand new one was a result of the Ruto factor?

Imagine that!! A country coming up with a brand new currency only because of a political factor!! That's how powerful it is.

And a few months later, because the government gave a deadline as to when those old notes would become obsolete (useless pieces of paper), we heard whispers that actually the Deputy President had lost a substantial amount of money. Not as much as the government would have liked, but he had lost a substantial amount of money after failing to convert some of his "war chest" cash for the elections into the brand new Kshs 1000 notes.

The factor around which politics revolves is extremely important for any analyst. That fact cannot be emphasized enough.

And so what is the factor controlling Kenyan politics at this moment. The answer to that question, I guarantee you, will take you completely by surprise. Check out the full report: Hidden factor controlling Ruto and Kenya politics

Mwai Kibaki: What Kenyans Never Knew

The Day KTN editor was fired for covering Kibaki presser

Kibaki like Ruto failed to be "king" the result was chaos